If we look at our previous sales notes, there’s something interesting: yield on
Germany’s 10-year bonds has risen to 2.8%, which is the highest level since mid-2022.
Germany 10 Year Bond Yield Chart
An increase in yield means
bond prices are falling, and investors are starting to feel uneasy about holding riskier bonds.
This has triggered a domino effect: investors are starting to
sell bonds from higher-risk European countries.
Although Germany still has relatively low borrowing costs compared to other European countries, the rise in yield is causing borrowing costs for other European countries to surge as well.
The next effect?
These countries are starting to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
No wonder, since European countries indeed hold a significant portion of U.S. Treasuries.
Source: US Treasury Department
Now, the problem is,
foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries seem to be declining, which we can see from the red line that is either stagnant or slightly down.
If this continues, the only ones left to absorb these bonds would be
the Fed or domestic institutions in the U.S.
Here’s the catch: if the Fed can’t absorb all the bonds sold by foreign investors,
bond prices could drop and yields would rise even further.
So, the most likely move for the Fed would be to buy those unsold bonds.
How? Like it or not, they would have to
print money to add liquidity to the market. Now, if the U.S. buys Treasuries using newly printed money, the
money supply in the market would increase.
The problem is, this increase in money supply could cause
inflation to spike, as more money circulates.
If inflation rises, investors will surely
rush to buy gold as a hedge. After all, gold is considered the safest asset to preserve wealth when the value of the Dollar is eroded by inflation.
That’s why, if the U.S. keeps printing money to buy bonds,
gold prices could spike significantly.
Especially since investors would definitely look for a safe haven to preserve their wealth.
But hold on, this isn’t over yet! It’s not just bonds that might be bought,
U.S. could also start buying gold to safeguard its foreign exchange reserves.
This means gold demand could rise from two sides:
from ordinary investors fearing inflation and from the U.S. government itself wanting to secure its reserves.
Now, here’s another angle that could drive gold prices crazy: the difference between "
paper gold" and physical gold.
So, here’s the deal: if people start fearing inflation and losing trust in "paper gold," they might rush to exchange their "paper gold" for real physical gold.
The problem is, the ratio between "paper gold" and physical gold is actually
133:1!
Source: USDebtClock.org
This means for every
1 ounce of real physical gold, there are 133 ounces of "paper gold" that exist only on paper, like gold futures contracts or ETFs.
Just imagine, it’s like a promise that says, “
Relax, you have gold,” but in reality, the gold isn’t there!
So, if everyone holding "paper gold" suddenly rushes to claim real physical gold, it would clearly cause chaos.
Logically, if the physical gold available isn’t enough to cover all that "paper gold,"
the demand for physical gold could skyrocket.
Since the supply is limited, the price of physical gold could spike uncontrollably.
This is very similar to a “bank run,” where everyone suddenly withdraws their money from the bank, and the bank doesn’t have enough cash to cover it. The difference is, this is the gold version.
However, there’s a risk: if something triggers panic and everyone rushes to claim physical gold, this could invite a
short squeeze, similar to what happened with GameStop stock, where the price exploded because many short sellers weren’t prepared to buy back.
Now, even though there’s a risk of a short squeeze in gold that could send prices skyrocketing, for investors, this could actually be a
big opportunity to gain.
That’s why we recommend investors to pay attention to stocks related to d
ollar and gold, like
INDY.
Because if gold prices break through
USD 3,000/ounce while the AISC is only
USD 1,200/ounce and the tax is around
10%, the profit margin is clearly much bigger compared to coal.
With such a promising outlook, we recommend
BUY for INDY with a target price of
IDR 3,100.
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