April 29, 2025
BBNI: Falling Deposit Rates Set Stage for Earnings Rebound

Market Commentary
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Recent data shows that deposit interest rates in Indonesia have started to fall, despite tight liquidity. Average deposit rates in banks fell by 13bps in March 2025 compared to December 2024. This easing trend reflects lower funding costs ahead, which will likely support a gradual recovery in banks’ margins. For BBNI, lower deposit rates mean a relief on pressure from funding costs.
 


BBNI’s loans grew by 10% YoY, maintaining healthy expansion particularly in corporate and consumer segments. On the funding side, BBNI’s deposit growth remained robust, supported by CASA (current account and savings account) growth of +6.3% YoY, which enhances cost-efficiency. Moreover, the bank’s Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) improved to 93.1% from 96.1%, indicating sufficient liquidity buffers to support future lending growth.
 


BBNI is attractively valued at a forward P/BV of only 0.9x and a P/E of just 6.9x FY25F — well below its historical averages and regional peers. With a projected ROE of 13.6% and dividend yield of 7.5%, investors get a rare combination of growth, defensive asset quality, and attractive income returns.
 


BBNI offers a compelling BUY opportunity. Soft 1Q25 results, set against a backdrop of easing funding pressures and macro tailwinds, provide a strong base for a recovery in profitability. As deposit rates fall, margins stabilize, and loan growth continues, BBNI is well-positioned to deliver superior returns while offering attractive valuation and dividends to shareholders.
 We reiterate our BUY recommendation with TP of IDR 5700 per share.
 

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