April 27, 2025
Solid Result, Lucrative Dividend Yield

Market Commentary
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In times of geopolitical tension, uncertainty hits markets hard. Companies with strong cash flow and attractive dividend yields become especially valuable.

Strong cash flow means they can fund operations, manage debt, and survive without relying on shaky external financing. Meanwhile, a solid dividend offers investors real, steady returns even when markets are volatile.

In these periods, investors naturally seek safety, and businesses that generate cash and reward shareholders stand out. Their valuations are more stable, and the dividends act like a cushion against falling stock prices. Simply put, in an unstable world, cash flow is survival — and dividends are a tangible reward for patience.
 

Therefore, we would like to highlight TPMA's solid FY24 result which place them among the top of our shopping list.

TPMA reported earnings of USD 8mn in 4Q24, representing a 20% YoY increase, despite a 7% YoY decline in revenue to USD 30 million. This performance resulted in FY24 revenue of USD 119 million (+7% YoY) and earnings of USD 25 million (+28% YoY). The full-year earnings achievement is broadly in line with our expectations, reaching 98% of our forecast.
 

Looking ahead, we project revenue growth of 5–18% YoY over 2025–2026F, which is expected to underpin earnings growth of 5–21% over the same period.

Revenue, EBITDA, and Net Profit (USD mn)

At present, the company is trading at an attractive valuation of 5.1–4.5x forward P/E for 2025–2026F. Should TPMA successfully acquire the remaining stake in BEST, the accretive impact on earnings would further lower the 2025–2026F P/E to 4.8–3.6x.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation with TP of IDR 1,200 per share.

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