April 17, 2025
Strong Demand of Gold

Market Commentary
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Gold has reached a new high due to strong safe-haven demand driven by global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts. These factors have boosted investor interest, pushing prices above previous resistance levels and setting a new all-time high.

The equity market is likely to remain volatile as tariff retaliation between China and the US fuels investor uncertainty and risks to global growth. Trade tensions increase concerns over corporate earnings and economic stability, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets like gold. This sustained uncertainty supports strong gold demand, helping keep prices elevated.
 
Gold Price

Indonesia has limited exposure to gold company proxies due to several reasons: some listed companies have high valuations, others have gold contributing only a small portion to total revenue, or they suffer from weak corporate governance. 

However, we believe ANTM stands out, as it actively trades gold and significantly benefits from it. As seen in the 2024 revenue breakdown, gold contributed over IDR 57.5tn —more than 80% of ANTM’s total sales—highlighting its strong leverage to gold price movements.
 

Our channel checks reveal two major supply shortages: nickel ore and physical gold bars. Currently, nickel ore is being sold at a significant premium, with some traders pricing it as high as $25/wmt—around 70% above the HMA benchmark. ANTM is well-positioned to capitalize on this, having secured 16.9mn wmt of RKAB, double last year’s production volume.

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) is currently experiencing a shortage of retail gold stock due to a significant surge in consumer demand. This increased interest in gold investment is driven by economic uncertainties and the rising price of gold. As a result, several Antam boutiques, particularly in Jakarta, have reported stock shortages for certain gold bar variants, especially those weighing 2 grams and above . 


Supported by capacity expansion and favorable gold price dynamics, we forecast net earnings to rise to IDR 5.0–5.8tn in 2025–2026F, reflecting robust growth of 30% and 16% YoY, respectively.

We maintain our BUY rating with a higher target price of Rp2,600/share.

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