March 24, 2025

Buybacks Are Back—And They Could Be a Game-Changer

Market Commentary

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Markets go through ups and downs—it’s just how the cycle works. Right now, JCI is feeling the pressure, and investor confidence has taken a hit. But here’s the thing: tough markets often lead to bold moves. And one of the clearest signs that companies believe in their own value? Share buybacks.

We’re seeing a wave of them. More and more companies are stepping in to buy back their own shares, which not only reduces the number of stocks available in the market but also sends a strong signal: “We know our stock is undervalued.”

This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this play out. During the COVID-19 crash, buybacks helped restore investor confidence, stabilizing stock prices and setting the stage for a strong rebound. Now, with buybacks making a comeback, we could be looking at the beginning of a similar recovery.

BRPT Stock performance in the past 31 years

The Rp5 Trillion Move That’s Turning Heads
One of the biggest buyback announcements has come from Prajogo Pangestu’s group—TPIA, BRPT, BREN, and CUAN. Together, they’ve committed to buying back Rp5 trillion worth of shares.
That’s a serious commitment. And it’s already having an effect—their stocks are holding up better than the rest of the market, proving once again that well-executed buybacks can be a powerful buffer in uncertain times.
And if there’s one name in this group that stands out, it’s BRPT.

BRPT’s Comeback Story Is Already in Motion
BRPT has had its share of challenges, but it’s proving once again why it’s a stock to watch. After reporting an $80 million loss in the previous quarter, the company just turned things around with $30 million in earnings for 4Q24. The reason? TPIA’s production is back on track, pushing BRPT’s revenue up 37% quarter-on-quarter to $710 million.

But this isn’t just about a short-term recovery. The bigger story is what’s coming next.

SECP, their newly acquired oil refinery and ethylene cracker, is expected to start contributing in 2Q25, bringing in an estimated $7 billion in revenue and $48 million in earnings. This could multiply TPIA’s revenue nearly fivefold in the coming years.
Indo Raya Tenaga (IRT), BRPT’s 34% subsidiary, has started commercial production and is expanding capacity to 2,000 MW. Once fully operational, it’s expected to generate $120 million to $150 million in earnings, with $8 million to $30 million flowing directly to BRPT.

With these major growth drivers, BRPT is on track for a strong earnings boost, projected at $72 million to $135 million in 2025-2026, while revenue is set to cross $10 billion.

Why BRPT Could Be One of the First to Bounce Back
If there’s one thing we’ve noticed about BRPT over the years, it’s this: it tends to recover fast.

BRPT Chart in correlation to JCI Index

Some stocks take time to catch up when the market turns around. BRPT, on the other hand, has historically been one of the first movers. In past downturns, it didn’t just bounce back quickly—it also outperformed during the bull market that followed.

Now, with strong catalysts like the SECP acquisition and the expansion of Indo Raya Tenaga, BRPT is positioning itself for the next growth phase. Combine that with a history of resilience and a management team confident enough to execute a buyback, and it’s clear why this stock is worth watching closely.

The market is still in a delicate phase, but for investors looking ahead, BRPT is one name that has consistently proven its ability to lead when confidence returns.

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March 25, 2025

March 24, 2025

March 24, 2025