Tea, Tariffs, and Trouble: History Doesn’t Repeat, but It Rhymes
10 April 2025
No. This ain’t the BBRI price chart. And you must be having a hell of a dream if you thought this was the JCI’s chart.
This is simply the Google search trend for the word "tariff" over the past 21 years. See how it skyrocketed? Well, you'll have to thank (or blame, whatever) the orange man for it.
And since I’m pretty sure you guys are already overloaded with this topic, let’s discuss something that is not-so-but-still related to whatever mayhem we’re witnessing today, especially from the Chinese perspective. Hopefully, my over-a-decade-long experience with them can tell us something here.
But first, I’ll say my conclusion out loud: China will never give in.
Okay, now it’s story time. And of course, this part is co-authored with my dearest friend, GPT.
The year is 1839. Those UK boys are absolutely hooked on everything Chinese—tea, silk, porcelain—you name it. Afternoon tea without Chinese leaves? That's like TikTok without dancing—unthinkable.
Problem is, China didn't want anything the British had to offer. Wool blankets? Meh. Clocks? Got plenty. Fish and chips? Not invented yet. So, the Brits faced a massive trade deficit—silver was flowing into China faster than tea was pouring into British cups. Something had to be done.
And what did Britain do? They found something China couldn't refuse (well, couldn't refuse eventually): Opium.
Yes, the British Empire literally became the biggest drug dealer of the 19th century. They flooded Chinese ports with opium grown cheaply in India, creating millions of addicts almost overnight. China's emperor, understandably furious, said "Enough!" and ordered massive amounts of opium to be destroyed.
Britain's response? "How dare you touch our totally illegal but highly profitable trade!" Thus began the Opium War—a battle triggered by tea cravings and questionable ethics.
China lost, and badly. They were forced into the humiliating Treaty of Nanjing (1842), giving up Hong Kong (and now you know why Hong Kong used to belong to those UK boys) and opening multiple ports to foreign traders. The Chinese called it the start of a "Century of Humiliation"—a bitter memory still alive today.
The worst part of it? It eventually sparked the infamous Boxer Rebellion at the turn of the century. Chinese resentment toward foreign meddling reached a boiling point, leading to fierce rebellion. Tragically, this ended with Beijing getting robbed in broad daylight (some artifacts are still in the British Museum today) and its precious palaces being ransacked by an international coalition, deepening the wound that's still felt today.
History, as witty as it sounds, has a habit of repeating itself—or at least rhyming.
Can you see how it rhymes with today’s madness?
- Started because of a trade deficit (yes, I know it’s way more complicated this time)
- Bullied again by foreigners
Ends up getting robbed in broad daylight
Chinese people have paid a tremendous cost to learn this lesson before, and this is exactly why I believe China will never give in. As our Chief Strategist Arief Putra straightforwardly put it, this yet again is a global-scale robbery, with China right in the crosshairs once more.
Now, I can’t say for sure how long things will drag out in the future, but here’s what I’m quite sure of—the Chinese people are far more resilient against their bullies. As President Xi and his spokespersons put it:
“中国人不惹事，也不怕事，施压、威胁和讹诈不是同中方打交道的正确方式。”
This translates to:
"The Chinese people do not provoke trouble, but they are not afraid of it. Pressure, threats, and blackmail are not the right way to deal with China."
So, what's the takeaway here?
Welcome aboard the new world, folks: it's messier, trickier, and everyone’s got sharper elbows.
As Singapore’s PM Lawrence Wong recently pointed out, the era of global free trade and globalization as we've known it has fundamentally changed. We're entering a new phase—one that is more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous.
But here's the kicker—history isn't just some boring school subject; it's like your ex: ignore it and it'll come back to haunt you. China hasn't forgotten the past, and trust me, they're more than ready to handle whatever comes next—not out of arrogance, but simply because they've learned the hardest way possible.
The bottom line? Trade wars are costly, nobody truly wins, and frankly, we’re better off not repeating past mistakes. Cooperation built on mutual respect—not intimidation—is how grown-ups solve problems. But perhaps acknowledging history's lessons will finally allow us to write a better, more collaborative chapter this time around?
Written by Paulus Jimmy
